Every venture we pursue should ride a macro tailwind — a structural shift already underway that doesn't need us to be true. This page is where we collect the evidence.
Our research desk runs around the clock, filing observations of what changed in the world — with sources attached. Everything is read and reviewed before it appears here, and the contradictory evidence stays in; that's the discipline. These are observations, not pitches: each one also feeds an internal evaluation we don't publish. What we build from it, you'll see when it ships.
Planet Fitness — the company that invented the $10 'judgement-free' budget gym and, at 21.5 million members across ~2,930 clubs, is several times larger than any rival — unexpectedly stopped growing members in 2026, in the middle of the strongest demand environment the US gym industry has ever…
Read the evidence →The US plasma-collection industry — supplier of ~70% of the world's plasma — is flipping from a decade-long center buildout premised on donor scarcity to a productivity-led contraction, at the same moment its donor base is swelling with economically distressed Americans. Three 2026 legs. (1) FEWER…
Read the evidence →The federal government reversed 15 years of school-milk policy in a five-month burst - the 2025-2030 Dietary Guidelines (released Jan 7 2026) reintroduced full-fat dairy into recommended eating patterns, the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act was signed Jan 14 2026, and a USDA final rule (May 8 2026…
Read the evidence →Two years of record cocoa prices appear to be restructuring the US candy aisle rather than just temporarily raising prices. Cocoa futures peaked above $12,000/tonne in late 2024, crashed to roughly $3,300/tonne by early spring 2026, and traded near $5,600-6,300 in September 2026 - yet chocolate…
Read the evidence →The US ran a 15-month accidental experiment in taxing a crop it cannot meaningfully grow (Hawaii/Puerto Rico produce ~1% of consumption; Brazil supplies ~37% of world production and ~45% of US consumption), and the results do not fit the story either side tells. Timeline (evidence): Apr 2025 — 10%…
Read the evidence →The 5 most recent observations are open to everyone. The full ledger — and search across all of it — is for members. Membership is free and works from anywhere: an email and a link, no password, no desk, no visit to Buffalo required.
Open any observation and leave a comment. Tell us what matches what you see from the inside — and what doesn't. That's worth more to us than a hundred likes.